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<title>数学大理科论文 —— 人口模型</title></head>
<body><h1>数学大理科论文 —— 人口模型</h1>
<p>&emsp;&emsp;人口模型是描述一国或地区人口总量和结构变动规律的系统动力学模型。总人口和出生人口数形成一个正反馈回路,它决定总人口的增长。总人口与死亡人数构成一个负反馈回路，它决定总人口的减少。整个人口系统由这正、负反馈回路耦合而成。总人口的增长趋势取决于这两个反馈回路的相互作用结果（强度差）。如何制定人口政策、制定适度人口和合理人口结构对策，可以在模型上做实验,控制与调整总人口出生率和总人口死亡率。较复杂的人口动态系统引入了多个年龄组，从而形成多个反馈回路的耦合，与实际更为接近。——百度百科</p>
<h2>Logistic模型</h2>
<p>首先假设<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.047ex" height="1.41ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 451 607.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.238ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E1-MJMATHI-72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E1-MJMATHI-72" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">r</script>为人口自然增长率，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.486ex" height="1.41ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 640 607.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.238ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E2-MJMATHI-3B1" d="M34 156Q34 270 120 356T309 442Q379 442 421 402T478 304Q484 275 485 237V208Q534 282 560 374Q564 388 566 390T582 393Q603 393 603 385Q603 376 594 346T558 261T497 161L486 147L487 123Q489 67 495 47T514 26Q528 28 540 37T557 60Q559 67 562 68T577 70Q597 70 597 62Q597 56 591 43Q579 19 556 5T512 -10H505Q438 -10 414 62L411 69L400 61Q390 53 370 41T325 18T267 -2T203 -11Q124 -11 79 39T34 156ZM208 26Q257 26 306 47T379 90L403 112Q401 255 396 290Q382 405 304 405Q235 405 183 332Q156 292 139 224T121 120Q121 71 146 49T208 26Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E2-MJMATHI-3B1" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\alpha</script>为人口自然衰减率，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="3.083ex" height="2.344ex" viewBox="0 -755.9 1327.3 1009.2" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.588ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E3-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E3-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E3-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E3-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">N_{n}</script>为前一天人口</p>
<p>则有：</p>
<p><span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="27.734ex" height="2.811ex" viewBox="0 -906.7 11941.1 1210.2" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMAIN-2B" d="M56 237T56 250T70 270H369V420L370 570Q380 583 389 583Q402 583 409 568V270H707Q722 262 722 250T707 230H409V-68Q401 -82 391 -82H389H387Q375 -82 369 -68V230H70Q56 237 56 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMAIN-2212" d="M84 237T84 250T98 270H679Q694 262 694 250T679 230H98Q84 237 84 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMATHI-72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMATHI-3B1" d="M34 156Q34 270 120 356T309 442Q379 442 421 402T478 304Q484 275 485 237V208Q534 282 560 374Q564 388 566 390T582 393Q603 393 603 385Q603 376 594 346T558 261T497 161L486 147L487 123Q489 67 495 47T514 26Q528 28 540 37T557 60Q559 67 562 68T577 70Q597 70 597 62Q597 56 591 43Q579 19 556 5T512 -10H505Q438 -10 414 62L411 69L400 61Q390 53 370 41T325 18T267 -2T203 -11Q124 -11 79 39T34 156ZM208 26Q257 26 306 47T379 90L403 112Q401 255 396 290Q382 405 304 405Q235 405 183 332Q156 292 139 224T121 120Q121 71 146 49T208 26Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E4-MJMAIN-32" d="M109 429Q82 429 66 447T50 491Q50 562 103 614T235 666Q326 666 387 610T449 465Q449 422 429 383T381 315T301 241Q265 210 201 149L142 93L218 92Q375 92 385 97Q392 99 409 186V189H449V186Q448 183 436 95T421 3V0H50V19V31Q50 38 56 46T86 81Q115 113 136 137Q145 147 170 174T204 211T233 244T261 278T284 308T305 340T320 369T333 401T340 431T343 464Q343 527 309 573T212 619Q179 619 154 602T119 569T109 550Q109 549 114 549Q132 549 151 535T170 489Q170 464 154 447T109 429Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(803,-150)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-6E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-2B" x="600" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-31" x="1378" y="0"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-2212" x="2453" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(3453,0)"><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-3D" x="5058" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-72" x="6114" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(6565,0)"><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-2212" x="8114" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-3B1" x="9114" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(9754,0)"><use xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMAIN-32" x="1291" y="487"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E4-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-211"></use></g><g transform="translate(11122,0)"><text font-family="STIXGeneral, 'PingFang SC', serif" stroke="none" transform="scale(50.259) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)">①</text></g></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">N_{n+1} - N_n= r N_n - \alpha N_n^2①</script></p>
<p>得：</p>
<p><span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="27.62ex" height="2.811ex" viewBox="0 -906.7 11891.8 1210.2" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-2B" d="M56 237T56 250T70 270H369V420L370 570Q380 583 389 583Q402 583 409 568V270H707Q722 262 722 250T707 230H409V-68Q401 -82 391 -82H389H387Q375 -82 369 -68V230H70Q56 237 56 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMATHI-72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMAIN-2212" d="M84 237T84 250T98 270H679Q694 262 694 250T679 230H98Q84 237 84 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E5-MJMATHI-3B1" d="M34 156Q34 270 120 356T309 442Q379 442 421 402T478 304Q484 275 485 237V208Q534 282 560 374Q564 388 566 390T582 393Q603 393 603 385Q603 376 594 346T558 261T497 161L486 147L487 123Q489 67 495 47T514 26Q528 28 540 37T557 60Q559 67 562 68T577 70Q597 70 597 62Q597 56 591 43Q579 19 556 5T512 -10H505Q438 -10 414 62L411 69L400 61Q390 53 370 41T325 18T267 -2T203 -11Q124 -11 79 39T34 156ZM208 26Q257 26 306 47T379 90L403 112Q401 255 396 290Q382 405 304 405Q235 405 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xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-3D" x="2508" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-28" x="3564" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-72" x="3953" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-2B" x="4626" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-31" x="5626" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-29" x="6126" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(6515,0)"><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-2212" x="8065" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-3B1" x="9065" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(9705,0)"><use xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E5-MJMAIN-32" x="1291" y="487"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E5-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-211"></use></g><g transform="translate(11072,0)"><text font-family="STIXGeneral, 'PingFang SC', serif" stroke="none" transform="scale(50.259) matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)">②</text></g></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">N_{n+1} = (r + 1) N_n - \alpha N_n^2②</script></p>
<p>令<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="6.195ex" height="2.928ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 2667.1 1260.5" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -1.055ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E6-MJMATHI-6B" d="M121 647Q121 657 125 670T137 683Q138 683 209 688T282 694Q294 694 294 686Q294 679 244 477Q194 279 194 272Q213 282 223 291Q247 309 292 354T362 415Q402 442 438 442Q468 442 485 423T503 369Q503 344 496 327T477 302T456 291T438 288Q418 288 406 299T394 328Q394 353 410 369T442 390L458 393Q446 405 434 405H430Q398 402 367 380T294 316T228 255Q230 254 243 252T267 246T293 238T320 224T342 206T359 180T365 147Q365 130 360 106T354 66Q354 26 381 26Q429 26 459 145Q461 153 479 153H483Q499 153 499 144Q499 139 496 130Q455 -11 378 -11Q333 -11 305 15T277 90Q277 108 280 121T283 145Q283 167 269 183T234 206T200 217T182 220H180Q168 178 159 139T145 81T136 44T129 20T122 7T111 -2Q98 -11 83 -11Q66 -11 57 -1T48 16Q48 26 85 176T158 471L195 616Q196 629 188 632T149 637H144Q134 637 131 637T124 640T121 647Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E6-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E6-MJMATHI-72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E6-MJMATHI-3B1" d="M34 156Q34 270 120 356T309 442Q379 442 421 402T478 304Q484 275 485 237V208Q534 282 560 374Q564 388 566 390T582 393Q603 393 603 385Q603 376 594 346T558 261T497 161L486 147L487 123Q489 67 495 47T514 26Q528 28 540 37T557 60Q559 67 562 68T577 70Q597 70 597 62Q597 56 591 43Q579 19 556 5T512 -10H505Q438 -10 414 62L411 69L400 61Q390 53 370 41T325 18T267 -2T203 -11Q124 -11 79 39T34 156ZM208 26Q257 26 306 47T379 90L403 112Q401 255 396 290Q382 405 304 405Q235 405 183 332Q156 292 139 224T121 120Q121 71 146 49T208 26Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E6-MJMATHI-6B" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E6-MJMAIN-3D" x="798" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(1576,0)"><g transform="translate(397,0)"><rect stroke="none" width="572" height="60" x="0" y="220"></rect><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E6-MJMATHI-72" x="179" y="582"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E6-MJMATHI-3B1" x="84" y="-488"></use></g></g></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">k=\frac{r}{\alpha}</script>即环境承载力代入①式得</p>
<p><span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="43.847ex" height="3.395ex" viewBox="0 -956.9 18878.4 1461.5" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -1.172ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E7-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E7-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 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xlink:href="#E7-MJMAIN-31" x="95" y="571"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E7-MJMATHI-6B" x="84" y="-559"></use></g></g><g transform="translate(17162,0)"><use xlink:href="#E7-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E7-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E7-MJMAIN-29" x="18489" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">N_{n+1}-N_n = r N_n - \frac{r}{k} N_n^2 = r N_n (1 - \frac{1}{k} N_n)</script></p>
<p>再令<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="8.667ex" height="3.395ex" viewBox="0 -1007.2 3731.6 1461.5" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -1.055ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMATHI-6B" d="M121 647Q121 657 125 670T137 683Q138 683 209 688T282 694Q294 694 294 686Q294 679 244 477Q194 279 194 272Q213 282 223 291Q247 309 292 354T362 415Q402 442 438 442Q468 442 485 423T503 369Q503 344 496 327T477 302T456 291T438 288Q418 288 406 299T394 328Q394 353 410 369T442 390L458 393Q446 405 434 405H430Q398 402 367 380T294 316T228 255Q230 254 243 252T267 246T293 238T320 224T342 206T359 180T365 147Q365 130 360 106T354 66Q354 26 381 26Q429 26 459 145Q461 153 479 153H483Q499 153 499 144Q499 139 496 130Q455 -11 378 -11Q333 -11 305 15T277 90Q277 108 280 121T283 145Q283 167 269 183T234 206T200 217T182 220H180Q168 178 159 139T145 81T136 44T129 20T122 7T111 -2Q98 -11 83 -11Q66 -11 57 -1T48 16Q48 26 85 176T158 471L195 616Q196 629 188 632T149 637H144Q134 637 131 637T124 640T121 647Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMAIN-2032" d="M79 43Q73 43 52 49T30 61Q30 68 85 293T146 528Q161 560 198 560Q218 560 240 545T262 501Q262 496 260 486Q259 479 173 263T84 45T79 43Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMATHI-72" d="M21 287Q22 290 23 295T28 317T38 348T53 381T73 411T99 433T132 442Q161 442 183 430T214 408T225 388Q227 382 228 382T236 389Q284 441 347 441H350Q398 441 422 400Q430 381 430 363Q430 333 417 315T391 292T366 288Q346 288 334 299T322 328Q322 376 378 392Q356 405 342 405Q286 405 239 331Q229 315 224 298T190 165Q156 25 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 114 189T154 366Q154 405 128 405Q107 405 92 377T68 316T57 280Q55 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMAIN-2B" d="M56 237T56 250T70 270H369V420L370 570Q380 583 389 583Q402 583 409 568V270H707Q722 262 722 250T707 230H409V-68Q401 -82 391 -82H389H387Q375 -82 369 -68V230H70Q56 237 56 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E8-MJMATHI-3B1" d="M34 156Q34 270 120 356T309 442Q379 442 421 402T478 304Q484 275 485 237V208Q534 282 560 374Q564 388 566 390T582 393Q603 393 603 385Q603 376 594 346T558 261T497 161L486 147L487 123Q489 67 495 47T514 26Q528 28 540 37T557 60Q559 67 562 68T577 70Q597 70 597 62Q597 56 591 43Q579 19 556 5T512 -10H505Q438 -10 414 62L411 69L400 61Q390 53 370 41T325 18T267 -2T203 -11Q124 -11 79 39T34 156ZM208 26Q257 26 306 47T379 90L403 112Q401 255 396 290Q382 405 304 405Q235 405 183 332Q156 292 139 224T121 120Q121 71 146 49T208 26Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E8-MJMATHI-6B" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E8-MJMAIN-2032" x="736" y="513"></use><use xlink:href="#E8-MJMAIN-3D" x="1093" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(1871,0)"><g transform="translate(397,0)"><rect stroke="none" width="1342" height="60" x="0" y="220"></rect><g transform="translate(60,462)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E8-MJMATHI-72" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E8-MJMAIN-2B" x="451" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E8-MJMAIN-31" x="1229" y="0"></use></g><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E8-MJMATHI-3B1" x="629" y="-488"></use></g></g></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">k' = \frac{r+1}{\alpha}</script></p>
<p>代入②式：</p>
<p><span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="29.926ex" height="3.861ex" viewBox="0 -1107.7 12884.9 1662.6" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -1.289ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E9-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E9-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 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<p>令<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="19.238ex" height="3.745ex" viewBox="0 -1057.4 8283 1612.3" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -1.289ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E10-MJMATHI-4E" d="M234 637Q231 637 226 637Q201 637 196 638T191 649Q191 676 202 682Q204 683 299 683Q376 683 387 683T401 677Q612 181 616 168L670 381Q723 592 723 606Q723 633 659 637Q635 637 635 648Q635 650 637 660Q641 676 643 679T653 683Q656 683 684 682T767 680Q817 680 843 681T873 682Q888 682 888 672Q888 650 880 642Q878 637 858 637Q787 633 769 597L620 7Q618 0 599 0Q585 0 582 2Q579 5 453 305L326 604L261 344Q196 88 196 79Q201 46 268 46H278Q284 41 284 38T282 19Q278 6 272 0H259Q228 2 151 2Q123 2 100 2T63 2T46 1Q31 1 31 10Q31 14 34 26T39 40Q41 46 62 46Q130 49 150 85Q154 91 221 362L289 634Q287 635 234 637Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E10-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 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26Q429 26 459 145Q461 153 479 153H483Q499 153 499 144Q499 139 496 130Q455 -11 378 -11Q333 -11 305 15T277 90Q277 108 280 121T283 145Q283 167 269 183T234 206T200 217T182 220H180Q168 178 159 139T145 81T136 44T129 20T122 7T111 -2Q98 -11 83 -11Q66 -11 57 -1T48 16Q48 26 85 176T158 471L195 616Q196 629 188 632T149 637H144Q134 637 131 637T124 640T121 647Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E10-MJMAIN-2032" d="M79 43Q73 43 52 49T30 61Q30 68 85 293T146 528Q161 560 198 560Q218 560 240 545T262 501Q262 496 260 486Q259 479 173 263T84 45T79 43Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E10-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E10-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 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27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><g transform="translate(120,0)"><rect stroke="none" width="1058" height="60" x="0" y="220"></rect><g transform="translate(60,515)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E10-MJMATHI-4E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.5)" xlink:href="#E10-MJMATHI-6E" x="1135" y="-213"></use></g><g transform="translate(240,-482)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E10-MJMATHI-6B" x="0" y="0"></use><use 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<p>则<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="18.475ex" height="2.811ex" viewBox="0 -906.7 7954.5 1210.2" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMAIN-2B" d="M56 237T56 250T70 270H369V420L370 570Q380 583 389 583Q402 583 409 568V270H707Q722 262 722 250T707 230H409V-68Q401 -82 391 -82H389H387Q375 -82 369 -68V230H70Q56 237 56 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMAIN-2212" d="M84 237T84 250T98 270H679Q694 262 694 250T679 230H98Q84 237 84 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E11-MJMAIN-32" d="M109 429Q82 429 66 447T50 491Q50 562 103 614T235 666Q326 666 387 610T449 465Q449 422 429 383T381 315T301 241Q265 210 201 149L142 93L218 92Q375 92 385 97Q392 99 409 186V189H449V186Q448 183 436 95T421 3V0H50V19V31Q50 38 56 46T86 81Q115 113 136 137Q145 147 170 174T204 211T233 244T261 278T284 308T305 340T320 369T333 401T340 431T343 464Q343 527 309 573T212 619Q179 619 154 602T119 569T109 550Q109 549 114 549Q132 549 151 535T170 489Q170 464 154 447T109 429Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(572,-150)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-6E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMAIN-2B" x="600" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMAIN-31" x="1378" y="0"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMAIN-3D" x="2277" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-3BC" x="3333" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(3936,0)"><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMAIN-2212" x="5254" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-3BC" x="6255" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(6858,0)"><use xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMAIN-32" x="808" y="487"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E11-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-211"></use></g></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x_{n+1} = \mu x_n - \mu x_n^2</script></p>
<p>最终推出我们需要的式子：</p>
<p><span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="20.043ex" height="2.577ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 8629.5 1109.7" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-2B" d="M56 237T56 250T70 270H369V420L370 570Q380 583 389 583Q402 583 409 568V270H707Q722 262 722 250T707 230H409V-68Q401 -82 391 -82H389H387Q375 -82 369 -68V230H70Q56 237 56 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-3D" d="M56 347Q56 360 70 367H707Q722 359 722 347Q722 336 708 328L390 327H72Q56 332 56 347ZM56 153Q56 168 72 173H708Q722 163 722 153Q722 140 707 133H70Q56 140 56 153Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-2212" d="M84 237T84 250T98 270H679Q694 262 694 250T679 230H98Q84 237 84 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E12-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(572,-150)"><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-6E" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-2B" x="600" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-31" x="1378" y="0"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-3D" x="2277" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-3BC" x="3333" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(3936,0)"><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-28" x="5032" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-31" x="5421" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-2212" x="6143" y="0"></use><g transform="translate(7144,0)"><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E12-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-213"></use></g><use xlink:href="#E12-MJMAIN-29" x="8240" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x_{n+1} = \mu x_n (1 - x_n)</script></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>我们设<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="2.546ex" height="1.76ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 1096.3 757.9" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.588ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E17-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E17-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E17-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E17-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-213"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x_n</script>初始值为0.2</p>
<p>将其转换为Python代码：</p>
<pre><code class='language-python' lang='python'>def x(mu: float, n: int):
    if n &gt; 1:
        previous = x(mu, n-1)
        return mu * previous * (1 - previous)
    return 0.2
</code></pre>
<p>再编写Matplotlib绘图代码</p>
<pre><code class='language-python' lang='python'>import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
from logistic import x

plt.style.use(&#39;seaborn&#39;)


PLOT_RANGE = 30

def plot_logistic(mu: float):
    x_labels = [n for n in range(1, PLOT_RANGE)]
    y_labels = [x(mu, n) for n in range(1, PLOT_RANGE)]
    fig, ax = plt.subplots()
    ax.plot(x_labels, y_labels)
    ax.set_title(f&quot;Logistic: {mu=}&quot;)
    plt.savefig(f&#39;plots/logistic_{mu}.png&#39;, bbox_inches=&#39;tight&#39;) # 保存函数图像


mu = 1
while mu &lt;= 5:
    plot_logistic(mu)
    mu = round(mu + 0.2, 1)
plt.show()
</code></pre>
<p>运行代码，生成以下图像（这里<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="9.918ex" height="2.461ex" viewBox="0 -755.9 4270.1 1059.4" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E14-MJMAIN-31" d="M213 578L200 573Q186 568 160 563T102 556H83V602H102Q149 604 189 617T245 641T273 663Q275 666 285 666Q294 666 302 660V361L303 61Q310 54 315 52T339 48T401 46H427V0H416Q395 3 257 3Q121 3 100 0H88V46H114Q136 46 152 46T177 47T193 50T201 52T207 57T213 61V578Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E14-MJMAIN-2264" d="M674 636Q682 636 688 630T694 615T687 601Q686 600 417 472L151 346L399 228Q687 92 691 87Q694 81 694 76Q694 58 676 56H670L382 192Q92 329 90 331Q83 336 83 348Q84 359 96 365Q104 369 382 500T665 634Q669 636 674 636ZM84 -118Q84 -108 99 -98H678Q694 -104 694 -118Q694 -130 679 -138H98Q84 -131 84 -118Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E14-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E14-MJMAIN-35" d="M164 157Q164 133 148 117T109 101H102Q148 22 224 22Q294 22 326 82Q345 115 345 210Q345 313 318 349Q292 382 260 382H254Q176 382 136 314Q132 307 129 306T114 304Q97 304 95 310Q93 314 93 485V614Q93 664 98 664Q100 666 102 666Q103 666 123 658T178 642T253 634Q324 634 389 662Q397 666 402 666Q410 666 410 648V635Q328 538 205 538Q174 538 149 544L139 546V374Q158 388 169 396T205 412T256 420Q337 420 393 355T449 201Q449 109 385 44T229 -22Q148 -22 99 32T50 154Q50 178 61 192T84 210T107 214Q132 214 148 197T164 157Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E14-MJMAIN-31" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E14-MJMAIN-2264" x="777" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E14-MJMATHI-3BC" x="1833" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E14-MJMAIN-2264" x="2714" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E14-MJMAIN-35" x="3770" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">1 \leq \mu \leq 5</script>，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>每增加0.2生成一个图像，横轴为<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.394ex" height="1.41ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 600 607.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.238ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E16-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E16-MJMATHI-6E" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">n</script>, 纵轴为<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="2.546ex" height="1.76ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 1096.3 757.9" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.588ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E17-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E17-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E17-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use transform="scale(0.707)" xlink:href="#E17-MJMATHI-6E" x="808" y="-213"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x_n</script>）：</p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_1.0.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=1.0"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_1.2.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=1.2"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_1.4.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=1.4"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_1.6.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=1.6"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_1.8.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=1.8"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_2.0.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=2.0"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_2.2.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=2.2"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_2.4.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=2.4"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_2.6.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=2.6"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_2.8.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=2.8"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_3.0.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=3.0"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_3.2.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=3.2"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_3.4.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=3.4"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_3.6.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=3.6"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_3.8.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=3.8"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_4.0.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=4.0"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_4.2.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=4.2"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_4.4.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=4.4"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_4.6.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=4.6"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_4.8.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=4.8"></p>
<p><img src="./plots/logistic_5.0.png" referrerpolicy="no-referrer" alt="mu=5.0"></p>
<p>通过上面的运行结果可以看出：</p>
<p>①当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取1.0-1.2时，由于人口自然增长率过低，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="4.529ex" height="2.577ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 1950 1109.7" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-28" x="572" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-6E" x="961" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-29" x="1561" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x(n)</script>会呈现近似于反比例函数的下降趋势；</p>
<p>②当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取1.4-3.0时，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="4.529ex" height="2.577ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 1950 1109.7" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-28" x="572" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-6E" x="961" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-29" x="1561" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x(n)</script>在到达一个最高点后经过一定起伏逐渐趋于稳定；</p>
<p>③当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取3.2-3.4时，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="4.529ex" height="2.577ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 1950 1109.7" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-28" x="572" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-6E" x="961" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-29" x="1561" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x(n)</script>会出现周期性变化；</p>
<p>④当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取3.6-4.0时，<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="4.529ex" height="2.577ex" viewBox="0 -806.1 1950 1109.7" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-78" d="M52 289Q59 331 106 386T222 442Q257 442 286 424T329 379Q371 442 430 442Q467 442 494 420T522 361Q522 332 508 314T481 292T458 288Q439 288 427 299T415 328Q415 374 465 391Q454 404 425 404Q412 404 406 402Q368 386 350 336Q290 115 290 78Q290 50 306 38T341 26Q378 26 414 59T463 140Q466 150 469 151T485 153H489Q504 153 504 145Q504 144 502 134Q486 77 440 33T333 -11Q263 -11 227 52Q186 -10 133 -10H127Q78 -10 57 16T35 71Q35 103 54 123T99 143Q142 143 142 101Q142 81 130 66T107 46T94 41L91 40Q91 39 97 36T113 29T132 26Q168 26 194 71Q203 87 217 139T245 247T261 313Q266 340 266 352Q266 380 251 392T217 404Q177 404 142 372T93 290Q91 281 88 280T72 278H58Q52 284 52 289Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-28" d="M94 250Q94 319 104 381T127 488T164 576T202 643T244 695T277 729T302 750H315H319Q333 750 333 741Q333 738 316 720T275 667T226 581T184 443T167 250T184 58T225 -81T274 -167T316 -220T333 -241Q333 -250 318 -250H315H302L274 -226Q180 -141 137 -14T94 250Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMATHI-6E" d="M21 287Q22 293 24 303T36 341T56 388T89 425T135 442Q171 442 195 424T225 390T231 369Q231 367 232 367L243 378Q304 442 382 442Q436 442 469 415T503 336T465 179T427 52Q427 26 444 26Q450 26 453 27Q482 32 505 65T540 145Q542 153 560 153Q580 153 580 145Q580 144 576 130Q568 101 554 73T508 17T439 -10Q392 -10 371 17T350 73Q350 92 386 193T423 345Q423 404 379 404H374Q288 404 229 303L222 291L189 157Q156 26 151 16Q138 -11 108 -11Q95 -11 87 -5T76 7T74 17Q74 30 112 180T152 343Q153 348 153 366Q153 405 129 405Q91 405 66 305Q60 285 60 284Q58 278 41 278H27Q21 284 21 287Z"></path><path stroke-width="0" id="E25-MJMAIN-29" d="M60 749L64 750Q69 750 74 750H86L114 726Q208 641 251 514T294 250Q294 182 284 119T261 12T224 -76T186 -143T145 -194T113 -227T90 -246Q87 -249 86 -250H74Q66 -250 63 -250T58 -247T55 -238Q56 -237 66 -225Q221 -64 221 250T66 725Q56 737 55 738Q55 746 60 749Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-78" x="0" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-28" x="572" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMATHI-6E" x="961" y="0"></use><use xlink:href="#E25-MJMAIN-29" x="1561" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">x(n)</script>进入混沌；</p>
<p>⑤当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取4.2-4.8时，会出现<em>马尔萨斯灾难</em>，即人口在经历一定增长后迅速下降（需要注明的是，图像在前期并不是一条直线，有上下起伏，但是起伏极小，几乎可以近似为一条直线）；</p>
<p>⑥当<span class="MathJax_SVG" tabindex="-1" style="font-size: 100%; display: inline-block;"><svg xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" width="1.401ex" height="1.877ex" viewBox="0 -504.6 603 808.1" role="img" focusable="false" style="vertical-align: -0.705ex;"><defs><path stroke-width="0" id="E27-MJMATHI-3BC" d="M58 -216Q44 -216 34 -208T23 -186Q23 -176 96 116T173 414Q186 442 219 442Q231 441 239 435T249 423T251 413Q251 401 220 279T187 142Q185 131 185 107V99Q185 26 252 26Q261 26 270 27T287 31T302 38T315 45T327 55T338 65T348 77T356 88T365 100L372 110L408 253Q444 395 448 404Q461 431 491 431Q504 431 512 424T523 412T525 402L449 84Q448 79 448 68Q448 43 455 35T476 26Q485 27 496 35Q517 55 537 131Q543 151 547 152Q549 153 557 153H561Q580 153 580 144Q580 138 575 117T555 63T523 13Q510 0 491 -8Q483 -10 467 -10Q446 -10 429 -4T402 11T385 29T376 44T374 51L368 45Q362 39 350 30T324 12T288 -4T246 -11Q199 -11 153 12L129 -85Q108 -167 104 -180T92 -202Q76 -216 58 -216Z"></path></defs><g stroke="currentColor" fill="currentColor" stroke-width="0" transform="matrix(1 0 0 -1 0 0)"><use xlink:href="#E27-MJMATHI-3BC" x="0" y="0"></use></g></svg></span><script type="math/tex">\mu</script>取5时，情况与②类似，造成这种情况的原因应该是人口自然增长率较大，一定程度上抵消了人口衰减率的影响</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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